THE INCLUSIVE COST OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA RISK by Victoria Y. Fan, Dean T. Jamison, and Lawrence H. Summers. NBER Working Paper 22137, March 2016.
The authors find that global pandemic flu risk is $570 billion per year. This is the expected annual value of impact, and is the amount that should inform judgements about the adequacy of risk-reducing measures and expenditures on core public health system capacities. The authors show that the risk of $570 billion is predominantly due to (a) intrinsic (subjective) mortality costs ($490 billion per year) , rather than (b) income losses ($80 billion per year).